Mesoscale Discussion 1147
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0449 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of southern Lower Michigan...northern
   Indiana...and northwest Ohio 
   (Escalloped area on headlined map)

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 4:49PM - 6:45PM CDT

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase across parts of the Great
   Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon/evening. Damaging gusts will be
   the main concern, and a watch will likely be needed for parts of the
   area.

   DISCUSSION...As a large cluster of storms with a history of large
   hail and damaging winds continues tracking east-southeastward over
   southern Lake Michigan toward Lower Michigan, lower 70s dewpoints
   and filtered diurnal heating downstream should continue to
   destabilize surface-based inflow for this convective cluster. At the
   same time, the GRR VWP shows 60-70 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear, which
   should further aid in convective organization with
   east-southeastward extent. While convective evolution remains
   somewhat unclear owing to generally weak large-scale ascent, the
   downstream environment could support significant gusts if efficient
   upscale growth can aid in forward propagation and established
   rear-inflow jets. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued
   shortly for parts of the area.