Mesoscale Discussion 1147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Areas affected...Parts of southern Lower Michigan...northern Indiana...and northwest Ohio (Escalloped area on headlined map) Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 4:49PM - 6:45PM CDT Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this afternoon/evening. Damaging gusts will be the main concern, and a watch will likely be needed for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...As a large cluster of storms with a history of large hail and damaging winds continues tracking east-southeastward over southern Lake Michigan toward Lower Michigan, lower 70s dewpoints and filtered diurnal heating downstream should continue to destabilize surface-based inflow for this convective cluster. At the same time, the GRR VWP shows 60-70 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear, which should further aid in convective organization with east-southeastward extent. While convective evolution remains somewhat unclear owing to generally weak large-scale ascent, the downstream environment could support significant gusts if efficient upscale growth can aid in forward propagation and established rear-inflow jets. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued shortly for parts of the area.