Mesoscale Discussion 2065 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 Areas affected...Far eastern Illinois into Indiana...western Kentucky...far southern Michigan...and far western Ohio Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 222139Z - 230145Z SUMMARY...The potential for brief/localized snow squalls will shift into Indiana, northwest Kentucky, and western Ohio through the evening hours as a strong cold front continues to push east. DISCUSSION...A strong cold front continues to push east across IN based on latest surface observations, and a broad region of post-frontal light to moderate snowfall remains evident from Lake Michigan southward into northern AR. Web cams and surface observations show pockets of reduced visibility down to 1/2 to 1/4 mile where moderate snowfall is coincident with 20-25 knot winds (gusting to 30-35 knots) across eastern IL. These winds are slightly stronger (around 5 knots on average) than depicted by latest guidance, and are expected to spread east into IN, parts of KY, and western OH behind the surface front through 02 UTC. Surface pressure falls in the absence of a strong warm advection regime across the Great Lakes region hint that synoptic ascent is increasing as the upper jet noses into the lower MS River Valley. Consequently, post-frontal precipitation will likely increase as well over the next several hours. The combination of gusty surface winds and pockets of moderate snowfall will maintain the potential for brief, sporadic snow squalls with reduced visibility down to 1/4 mile. Snow squalls may be more impactful across parts of far northwest KY into central IN where light rainfall ahead of the cold front followed by a rapid onset of freezing temperatures may result in flash freezing coincident with the brief snow squall conditions.
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