Latest update on Severe Thunderstorm Watch #651 as storms move east across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin

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 Mesoscale Discussion 1971
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1058 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

   Areas affected...northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 651...

   Valid 130358Z - 130600Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 651

   SUMMARY...A few strong to severe wind gusts remain possible mainly
   over northern Illinois.

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms has gradually consolidated along the
   cold front over northwest IL, while a leading elevated line of
   storms continues into southeast WI. Cool surface temperatures north
   of the warm front have mitigated wind potential over WI, but
   southerly winds are aiding warming temperatures over parts of
   northeast IL.

   The stronger winds aloft are mainly along and west of the cold
   front, with deep-layer shear roughly parallel to the front.
   Low-level shear is generally decreasing due to veering 850 mb winds,
   but mean winds through a deep layer as well as around 1500 J/kg
   MLCAPE may support periodic strengthening. A few damaging wind gusts
   remain possible, as well as marginal hail. Additional watches appear
   unlikely at this time unless further strengthening occurs.


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