MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1391

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0841 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2022



AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN IOWA...FAR

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS



CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440...



VALID 060141Z - 060315Z



THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440

CONTINUES.



SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

WATCH 440. DAMAGING GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ALL STORMS,

THOUGH AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF SEVERE HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE.



DISCUSSION...A BOW-ECHO MCS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS

CENTRAL INTO EASTERN IA, WITH RELATIVELY MORE DISCRETE MULTICELLULAR

STORMS PERSISTING ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE

WI/IL BORDER. THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION HAS BEGUN, SURFACE

TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S F, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS

BETWEEN 75-80 F. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD 6.5 C/KM TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE

RATES OVERSPREADING THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST-WEST

ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE, 4000 J/KG MLCAPE REMAINS IN PLACE. AS

SUCH, THE BOW-ECHO MCS AND PRECEDING CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH

SOME VIGOR FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE MORE APPRECIABLE

MLCINH SETS IN. FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AT LEAST A FEW DAMAGING

WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF MARGINALLY

SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DOMINANT UPDRAFTS (ESPECIALLY

WITH THE STORMS PRECEDING THE BOW-ECHO) GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF CAPE

PRESENT.