Mesoscale Discussion 1732
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of northern IL...southern WI...far eastern IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 281734Z - 281900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms capable of damaging wind gusts and potentially a
   tornado or two will be possible this afternoon. Watch issuance is
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing early this afternoon
   across far eastern IA into western IL, in advance of a well-defined
   MCV centered near southeast IA. MLCAPE has increased into the
   1500-2000 J/kg range across the region, with some additional
   destabilization possible through the afternoon, given the relative
   lack of cloudiness downstream of the developing storms. The 17Z DVN
   sounding and recent VWPs from KDVN indicate increasing flow through
   a deep layer in association with the MCV, supporting sufficient
   deep-layer shear for organized storm development, including the
   potential for a couple of supercells as storms mature this
   afternoon. 

   Favorable low-level moisture/buoyancy and modestly enhanced
   low-level flow/shear will be sufficient for some tornado threat with
   any sustained supercells. The strongest cells/clusters will also be
   capable of producing damaging wind gusts, as low-level lapse rates
   steepen downstream of the MCV. Rather weak midlevel lapse rates and
   warm temperatures aloft will temper the hail threat to some extent,
   though isolated hail cannot be ruled out with any supercell
   development. Watch issuance is possible by 18-19Z.