Mesoscale Discussion 1732 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2022 Areas affected...Parts of northern IL...southern WI...far eastern IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281734Z - 281900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of damaging wind gusts and potentially a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing early this afternoon across far eastern IA into western IL, in advance of a well-defined MCV centered near southeast IA. MLCAPE has increased into the 1500-2000 J/kg range across the region, with some additional destabilization possible through the afternoon, given the relative lack of cloudiness downstream of the developing storms. The 17Z DVN sounding and recent VWPs from KDVN indicate increasing flow through a deep layer in association with the MCV, supporting sufficient deep-layer shear for organized storm development, including the potential for a couple of supercells as storms mature this afternoon. Favorable low-level moisture/buoyancy and modestly enhanced low-level flow/shear will be sufficient for some tornado threat with any sustained supercells. The strongest cells/clusters will also be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, as low-level lapse rates steepen downstream of the MCV. Rather weak midlevel lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft will temper the hail threat to some extent, though isolated hail cannot be ruled out with any supercell development. Watch issuance is possible by 18-19Z.