MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1253 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2022



AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...SOUTHWEST LOWER

MICHIGAN



CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 527...



VALID 291753Z - 292000Z



THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 527

CONTINUES.



SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WATCH

527, AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM INTO PARTS OF

LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.



DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX OF STORMS WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN OUTFLOW

BULGES HAS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS

GENERALLY 40-50 KT ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THIS

LINE IS NOW CROSSING INTO LAKE MI, AND WILL EVENTUALLY EMERGE INTO

SOUTHWEST LOWER MI WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. THE

SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMPLEX ALSO REMAINS STRONG, AND MAY BECOME

DOMINANT AS IT MOVES DOWN THE 3000+ MLCAPE INSTABILITY AXIS INTO IN

LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, AN ADDITIONAL WATCH COULD BE NEEDED

PRIOR TO 19Z.