6:09PM CDT Mesoscale Discussion update on Tornado Watch…

Weather
   Mesoscale Discussion 1835
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0609 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

   Areas affected...central through northeast Illinois

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 521...

   Valid 6:09 - 7:45 PM CDT...

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 521 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for locally strong to severe gusts and a few brief
   tornadoes will persist from central and northern IL through early
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...An arcing line storms with embedded bowing segments and
   occasional meso-vortices continues moving northeast through central
   and north central IL at 35-40 kt. The activity is moving through a
   relatively narrow instability corridor with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
   Despite the somewhat marginal thermodynamic environment, vertical
   wind profiles continue to exhibit large low-level hodographs with
   250-300 m2/s2 storm relative helicity as well as 50+ kt effective
   bulk shear. The downstream environment across northeast IL will
   remain favorable for occasional embedded organized structures
   through early evening. Storms will eventually pose a severe threat
   for the Chicago metro area near or shortly after 00Z.

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