Trump would win if election held today, new forecast says


Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are tightening their grips on the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations.

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NEW YORK — A new election forecast indicates Donald Trump has received a sizable bounce in the polls.

According to statistician Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog, were the Presidential Election held today, Donald Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton 54.2 percent to 45.8 percent.

Silver’s forecast is based on the “now-cast,” which aims to predict outcomes of an election on a given day. “We don’t usually spend a lot of time writing about the now-cast because — uhh, breaking news — the election is scheduled for Nov. 8,” Silver notes.

The news comes as Trump has garnered an advantage over Clinton by about five points in a new CNN poll, as well as other polls.

Trump’s bounce in the polls has come in part by his ability to garner votes from undecided and third-party candidates after the Republican National Convention, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Silver notes that conventions “tend to be one of the less accurate times for polling.”

To read more about FiveThirtyEight’s methodology, go here. 


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