Is it more likely than not to rain on August 10 every year?

Dear Tom,

Is it more likely than not to rain on August 10 every year? It seems there has been precipitation more than 50% of the time for my birthday in the last 52 years.

Thanks,
Jen Packheiser
Oak Park

Dear Jen,

Happy Birthday! We asked Chicago climatologist Frank Wachowski to check out your hunch and he can partially substantiate your claim. Checking the August 10 rainfall records, dating back to 1966, Wachowski found that measurable precipitation (at least 0.01 inches) has fallen on 33 percent of your birthdays, the heaviest total being 1.87 inches in 1979. When incorporating trace events into the mix, rain has occurred on 50 percent of your birthdays. Your wet perceptions do seem a bit surprising because your recent birthdays have been dry. Since 2000, measurable rain has occurred in just four years-2005, 2012, 2015 and 2017 and there have been just two years with traces-2004 and 2006.

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