Widely scattered thunderstorms expected across the Chicago area this afternoon/evening

With a humid 70-degree dew point unstable air mass in place, along with abundant sunshine to enhance convective development, there is a good chance that scattered thunderstorms will develop over northeast Illinois across southern Lake Michigan into northwest Indiana ahead of a weak cold front advancing south out of Wisconsin this Saturday afternoon/evening. The front should move across our area mid to late afternoon.

Winds aloft indicate storm movement will be southeast at about 20 miles per hour and the National Weather Prediction Center has our area in the Marginal Risk for Excessive rainfall (green-shaded area on the outlook map below), so a strong storm with heavy downpours could cause some short-term localized flooding problems. The National Storm Prediction Center has our area in a 10% risk of thunderstorms within 12 miles of a given location this afternoon/evening (see brown-shaded area on outlook maps below).

Excessive rainfall outlook…

Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Thunderstorm Probability 11AM – 3PM CDT

Thunderstorm Outlook 3PM – 7PM CDT…

Thunderstorm Outlook 7PM CDT – 11PM CDT…

Regional Weather Radar…

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