Severe storm potential to the south and west of the Chicago area this afternoon/evening

Severe storm potential exists this afternoon and evening to the south and west of the Chicago area. A Tornado Watch remains in effect for central Illinois until 6PM CDT. Following is a Mesoscale Discussion issued by the National Storm Prediction Center describing a potential for severe storm development to our west in Iowa and western Illinois and the possibility of the issuance of a Tornado Watch for that area.

Mesoscale Discussion 0772
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0325 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

   Areas affected...Eastern IA...Far Southwest WI...Far Northwest IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 242025Z - 242130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent



   SUMMARY...A watch may be needed within the next few hours as storms
   increase in coverage across eastern IA, far southwest WI, and far
   northwest IL. These storms will be capable of all severe hazards,
   including a couple of tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places an occluded front arcing
   from west-central MN into central IA and then back southwest into
   far northeast KS. A warm front intersects this occluded front near
   BNW (in central IA) and then extends southeastward through central
   IL. Warm sector across southern IA/northern MO is characterized by
   temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s and dewpoints in the upper
   60s/low 70s. Expectation is for the warm front to continue lifting
   northward through central/east-central IA and northern IL over the
   next several hours. 

   Air mass along and south of the warm front is expected to
   destabilize as temperatures climb into the 80s. RAP forecast
   soundings indicate an uncapped air mass with over 1500 J/kg of
   MLCAPE will exist across much of central/eastern IA by 21-22Z. Some
   minimal convective inhibition may persist across northern
   IL/southern WI until closer to 00Z. 

   Convective initiation is expected within the next hour or two,
   likely along the occluded front or near the warm front. There is
   some uncertainty regarding storm coverage, but overall environment
   suggests that the storms that do form will likely be severe. All
   hazards are possible, including tornadoes.
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