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Mesoscale Discussion – Tornado Watch southwest of Chicago area will probably be extended into central Illinois

Mesoscale Discussion 0744
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0943 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of northeast
   Missouri...Central Illinois

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 213...

   Valid 230243Z - 230415Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 213 continues.

   SUMMARY...Storms in Tornado Watch 213 will continue to move eastward
   into an increasingly destabilized environment with strong deep-layer
   shear and enlarged low-level hodographs. A continued threat for
   tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts is expected in
   central Illinois. A new watch will be needed by 11 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing storms in Tornado Watch 231 have been able to
   remain discrete with a few storms beginning to cluster in the
   vicinity of Peoria, IL. Several reports of funnel clouds/tornadoes
   and strong wind gusts have occurred in the last two hours. The
   environment will remain favorable for organized convection given the
   50-60 kts of effective shear. More importantly, the downstream
   environment of these storms has been steadily improving as a
   reservoir of low 70s dewpoints in southern Illinois has begun to
   advect northward into central Illinois. This will increase MLCAPE
   values ahead of the ongoing convection to 1500 J/kg on the northern
   end to perhaps near 3000 J/kg on the southern fringes. RAP forecast
   soundings indicate that storms moving into central Illinois should
   remain surface-based or nearly-so. The ILX VAD profile has also
   shown an increase in low-level veering. As such, a continued threat
   for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will persist with
   any storms that remain discrete. Some upscale growth is anticipated
   as the evening goes on which will reduce the tornado and hail threat
   to some degree. However, strong low-level wind fields will still
   support a tornado threat even with a QLCS storm mode.

   A downstream watch will be needed by 11 PM CDT for the convection
   expected to move into central Illinois.

   ..Wendt.. 05/23/2019
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