What is the probability that we’ll escape snow for the rest of the winter?

Dear Tom,

With forecast highs in the 40s and 50s and forecast lows not much below freezing for the next week, what is the probability that we’ll escape snow for the rest of the winter?

Thanks,
John Perry Hampshire

Dear John,

The overwhelming odds are that the 2017-18 snow season is far from over. While historically, snowfall this late in the season is certainly on the decline, a typical March and April produce about 6.8 inches, comprising nearly 20 percent of the season’s 36.3 inch average. The average ending date of the city’s measurable snow season is April 3, but has come as early as February 27 in 1997 and as late May 11 in 1966. The city has been hit by some memorable late-season snowstorms that include 19.2 inches on March 25-26, 1930, 9.4 inches on April 5, 1982 and even 2.2 inches on May 1-2, 1940.