A Marginal Risk of severe storms over the Chicago area Saturday
The National Storm Prediction Center outlook for Saturday has included the entire Chicago area under a Marginal Risk of severe storms (dark-green-shaded area on the highlighted map depicting a 5% chance of severe storms within 25 miles of a given location). The isolated strong to severe storms here would have damaging winds and/or large hail. The area far south and east of Chicago, generally from northeastern Louisiana and Mississippi through western Tennessee and western Kentucky into southern Indiana is under a higher Slight Risk (yellow-shaded area depicting a 15% chance of severe storms within 25 miles of a given location).
A band of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will move northeast through our area this morning. Then later this afternoon a west-east-oriented warm front associated with developing low pressure in the central plains will move north passing over our area, triggering another round of showers and thunderstorms (a few could be strong to severe and produce heavy downpours leading to localized minor flooding). The showers/isolated thunderstorms could continue until a cold front sweeps through from the west later at night.
The overall synoptic situation for today with highest severe storm risk well to our south and east is displayed on the map below.