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Mesoscale Discussion 0313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017
Areas affected...Southeast Wisconsin and Northern Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 232328Z - 240100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue this evening. isolated large
hail will be the primary threat.
DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms are developing across the upper
Midwest on the nose of the 850-millibar moist, warm-air advection.
These thunderstorms are on the eastern edge of the steeper mid-level
lapse rates (between 7-8 C/km) and will continue to move generally
eastward toward a more stable environment over/near Lake Michigan.
Until then, over the next 1-2 hours, isolated large hail will be
possible with the strongest thunderstorm cores. Given the limited
spatio-temporal nature of the remaining threat, a watch is currently