Mesoscale Discussion on strong storms moving into northern Indiana

Mesoscale Discussion 1358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Areas affected…Southwest Lower MI…Northern IN

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 200301Z – 200500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent

SUMMARY…Strong thunderstorms are possible across portions of
northern IN and southwest lower MI. Isolated damaging winds are the
primary threat.

DISCUSSION…Long-lived MCS continues its southeast movement across
southern WI and northern IL. This complex of storms has cycled and
matured, and now appears to be waning with warming cloud tops and
weaker wind gusts along the leading squall line. Regional radar data
suggests an MCV has evolved within trailing precip shield over
southern WI and this feature is moving southeast toward southern
Lake MI. While the MCS appears to be weakening somewhat, it remains
organized and a well defined squall line is expected to progress
across southern Lake MI into northern IN over the next 1-2 hours.
Unless severe wind gusts become more common with an upward cycling
of this complex a new ww is not anticipated.