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Mesoscale Discussion – considering a severe storm watch across portion of the Chicago area south of Interstate-80

Mesoscale Discussion 1278
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Areas affected…Northern IL…Northern and Central IN

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible

Valid 101948Z – 102145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent

SUMMARY…A few severe storms capable of large hail and damaging
winds may develop in the next 1-2 hours over parts of northern IL
and northern/central IN. A watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION…Recent water vapor loop shows a series of shortwave
troughs rotating across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes region.
One feature is currently over MN and will track southeastward toward
the discussion area this afternoon. Strong heating over much of
MO/IL, and persistent clouds over parts of IN, have resulted in a
low-level baroclinic zone where continued southwesterly low-level
winds will enhance warm advection and lift. This corridor is
expected to be the focus for scattered thunderstorm development in
the 20-22z time frame. Forecast soundings show sufficient low-level
and deep-layer vertical shear for supercell structures capable of
damaging wind gusts and hail. A watch is being considered for this
scenario.