...The National Storm Prediction Center latest discussion...
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203
SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across remaining-valid portions
of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203 and may spread farther east/south.
Additional Watch issuance and/or Watch extension may be considered.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has consolidated into a
somewhat more organized squall line from southeast IA to far
north-central MO. This activity will continue advancing generally
eastward along a baroclinic zone, with some tendency for southward
development into a destabilizing environment south of the boundary.
A few storms may also continue to develop ahead of this activity.
With around 45-55 kt of effective shear, this activity will likely
continue to exhibit organization into the early evening hours.
Isolated to widely scattered severe wind/hail will remain possible,
along with some potential for a brief tornado. Downstream Watch
issuance may eventually be considered, and local extensions of Watch
203 may also be considered. Behind the squall line, the severe risk
will markedly diminish.