Update: Showers/thunder still in forecast this evening, but severe threat has shifted east into Indiana/Ohio
Update 4:30PM CDT…
While scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may occur this evening/overnight, the main threat of severe storms has shifted east into Indiana/Ohio. (see updated severe weather outlook highlighted map).
The National Storm Prediction Center has outlooked the entire Chicago area for a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night – the greatest risk here appears to be this afternoon into this evening. The Slight Risk (wide-yellow-shaded area extending all the way from the Gulf of Mexico north to the Chicago area on the highlighted map depicts a 15% chance of severe storms within 25 miles of a given location, including a 5% chance of a tornado today and tonight).
The deepening center of low pressure is forecast to move northeast out of eastern Kansas, tracking just to the west of Chicago tonight with the associated occluding frontal system preceded by several bands of potentially strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening that in turn could produce not only damaging winds and large hail, but also a few tornadoes. Additional heavy rains of 1 to 2-inches could cause more flash flooding with already swollen rivers rising out of their banks, in some cases prolonging flooding into this next week.